Harris County homeowners could pay about 30% more in county property taxes than they did in 2023, according to an estimate from Rice University political scientist Mark Jones reported by KPRC 2. That projection assumes commissioners approve a proposed rate hike Thursday, Sept. 17.

The Commissioners Court is set to hold a public hearing and final vote on the FY2027 budget. The proposed combined tax rate of about $0.67 per $100 of taxable value would be 7.6% higher than last year's rate of $0.62 and the highest combined county rate since at least 2017, according to My Neighborhood News reporting on county budget data.

For Spring residents in unincorporated Harris County, the county tax bill is especially significant. Commissioners Court is the primary provider of roads, drainage, parks and public safety in areas without a city government.

"This will represent a 30% increase for most homeowners compared to what they were paying back in 2023," Jones told KPRC 2.

Jones said county spending is growing far faster than population or inflation. Population grew about 1% and inflation ran about 3%, he said, which would justify roughly a 4% budget increase. The proposed increase is about 12%.

Baker Institute fellow Bill King called the spending growth an outlier among Texas counties in the same KPRC 2 report. King said the county has added more than 2,000 employees in the past three years and could have collected about $100 million in extra revenue from new construction alone without raising the rate.

Employee healthcare costs are projected to jump roughly $100 million in FY2027, with the per-employee cost rising from $20,228 to $25,342, according to county budget data reported by My Neighborhood News. The budget also reflects the second year of law enforcement pay parity and the first full year of a county pay-equity study. Federal pandemic relief funds totaling $915.5 million through the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) have been fully obligated.

Commissioners voted 3-2 on Sept. 8 to advance the proposed rates. Commissioners Rodney Ellis, Lesley Briones and Adrian Garcia voted in favor. Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and County Judge Lina Hidalgo voted against, according to Community Impact.

Ramsey proposed keeping the general fund rate at last year's $0.38 per $100, which budget officials said would mean roughly $243.6 million less in revenue. That proposal did not pass. Ramsey said on X on Sept. 14 that his position is to reduce spending and programs.

@TomSRamsey2: "This week we will have our final vote on if/how much we raise taxes in Harris County. My position is well documented - we need to reduce spending and programs."

Hidalgo, who is not seeking re-election in November, said at the Sept. 8 Commissioners Court meeting that the county is "patching the bullet hole with a Band-Aid for one more year," as Fox 26 reported.

Harris County Budget Director Daniel Ramos estimated the combined rate increase would add about $193 to the average homeowner's annual bill, Community Impact reported.

Jones said he expects the tension between funding county programs and limiting property taxes to continue. The proposed budget includes $45 million in one-time funding for county programs that will need new funding sources next year.

The public hearing begins at 9 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 17, at 1001 Preston St., first floor, Houston.